And so a team playing disciplined rather than spectacular football wins the World Cup, triumphing over one whose exciting and technical attacking game had given the rest of the world food for thought. That was West Germany’s 2-1 victory over the Netherlands in the 1974 final. Might the tables be turned this year?
I should probably make clear that, if you’re looking for an impartial and balanced take on the upcoming final, this isn’t the place for it. I’ll be cheering on the Dutch come Sunday night. As much as I admire the Spanish team and the geniuses that are Xavi and Iniesta, I’ve never been a great fan. Perhaps it was the pain of the 2009 Champions’ League final, or plain jealousy of their plethora of talent available.
That position clear, I’m going to look at how the Dutch might win their first World Cup, having first looked over how they might lose. Oh, and please ignore the octopus.
For Stekelenburg, Spain have Casillas. For Heitinga, Spain have Puyol. For Sneijder, Spain have Iniesta. For van Persie, Spain have Villa. On paper, it should be a whitewash. And Spain, in practice, have the ability to virtually pass a team to death. Their technical ability and understanding is second to none. The Germans who destroyed England and Argentina were made to look very ordinary on Wednesday night, starved as they were of possession. And the Spanish defence was never going to make silly mistakes like Germany’s last two opponents. Spain are strong defensively, embarrassed with riches in midfield and, in Villa, have the tournament’s deadliest striker.
The Netherlands do, however, have hope. Spain lost to Switzerland and then scraped wins over Portugal and Paraguay to get to the final four; none of those sides are of their own class. What did Switzerland do right that many, Germany included, did not? The Swiss got plenty of men behind the ball, disrupted the creative flow through Alonso, Xavi and Iniesta, effected some superb last-ditch defending and, crucially, exploited Spanish mistakes to carve out their own chances – Switzerland were, of course, a post’s width away from scoring a second. To be fair, the Germans defended well for the most part but when Kroos had his chance he missed and Puyol crashed in the winner moments later.
If Spain are to be beaten again, the Dutch will have to be on the top of their game, with the Spanish below par. And they’ll probably need to accept that the Spaniards will have most of the possession. It’s what the Dutch do with the possession they do get that will decide their fate. Germany’s passing on Wednesday missed the sharpness of previous games, so their counter-attacks floundered.
Can the Swiss example be followed? Let’s look at the jobs the various areas of the Dutch team will be tasked with. I’m expecting the Dutch to line up with Stekelenburg in goal, and in front of him van der Wiel, Heitinga, Mathijsen, van Bronckhorst, van Bommel, de Jong, Robben, Sneijder, Kuyt and van Persie in a 4-2-3-1 formation. How about that defence? First of all, Stekelenburg has to offer much greater stability than he did against Uruguay; no defence plays well without confidence in the man behind them. He is capable, as he showed against Slovakia and Brazil for example, of being a world-class goalkeeper; he needs to demonstrate it on the biggest stage – have confidence coming for crosses, be alert for balls played behind his defence and also watch for long-range efforts from the likes of Alonso and Villa. As for the back four, they are not star names but have operated as a unit. I have been impressed by Mathijsen in particular; I feel Heitinga has lost his cool a few times – something the Spanish will punish. An solid partnership is crucial; taking up key positions, marking their men and helping each other out in times of danger. As for van der Wiel and van Bronckhorst, they have been impressive going forward, but have yet to be really tested at their own end. van Bronckhorst has the experience necessary for this game but the young van der Wiel has to stay disciplined enough to know when to join in with attacks and when to hold position, plus remaining strong against Villa, who often drifts to the left side, and Iniesta, who pops up everywhere and anywhere.
I believe the match will be won or lost in the next section of the pitch. Perhaps controversially, I would take van Bommel and de Jong over Busquets and Alonso for the defensive midfield places, considering the roles they are to perform. Undoubtedly van Bommel divides opinion; a cynical and dirty player at times, he is nonetheless effective shutting down opposition attacks. And de Jong is for me a hugely important component in the Dutch team, sorely missed against Uruguay; energetic, determined and a strong tackler, he wins possession and allows Sneijder and Robben to play. These two might not have the creative ability of Busquets and especially Alonso, but I don’t see that as important. Their manager, Bert van Marwijk, will ask the pair to sit in front of the defence, protecting the centre-backs, covering for the full-backs when they venture forward and, crucially, stifling Xavi and Iniesta, even Villa if he drops deeper. A tough task, but the Swiss managed it and it could decide who wins the game. Fail to stop Xavi, Iniesta and Villa and you lose. Minimise their time on the ball and their options with it, and you have a far greater chance.
If you stop the Spanish attackers, you can get at the rest of their team. I’ve already pointed to Busquets and Alonso as fine players but perhaps more about flair than fight. The defence too has looked suspect at times. Ramos looks far more comfortable in the opposition half than his own; his attempt at tackling Özil in the semi-final was clumsy and he was lucky not to concede at least a dangerous free-kick. Pique for me has been poor, especially against Paraguay. And while I would argue Puyol and Capdevila have had decent games overall, there have been mistakes and uncertainties. Behind them, Casillas has been good but not flawless.
If the Dutch work as a cohesive team, bringing the four attacking players back to help win possession, they can exploit these potential weaknesses. Assuming the distribution from de Jong, van Bommel, van Bronckhorst, etc. is up to standard, Sneijder and Robben can create chances. Excellent players as they are, they will never reach the class of Xavi and Iniesta; but they might just be more clinical. Both can score and provide assists from almost nowhere and be inspirations to teammates. Kuyt has been a laudable outlet on either wing, taking on defenders and putting quality balls into the box. It is probably fair to say that van Persie has not reached the standards expected of him, though he is in many ways representative of the Dutch team: not outstanding but getting a job done for the team. He has held the ball up well and aided counter attacks with subtle passing and intelligent movement. If he adds the goalscoring threat he is capable of to his game for the final, he might have an even greater effect.
The Brazil side the Dutch knocked out featured a strong defence, probably superior to Spain’s. The Dutch caused them to panic – they made mistakes and lost their composure, so the Dutch progressed. How exactly van Marwijk inspired that among his players, we cannot know. A repeat performance is not beyond all possibility, though more difficult, as the Spanish monopoly on possession makes a game difficult to dominate as the Dutch did in the second half against Brazil. Yet, if the Netherlands can stay solid at the back, disciplined (that’s you, van Bommel!) and diligent in midfield, forge openings and clinical enough to take the opportunities the Spanish will yield, maybe they can send their exuberant supporters into ecstasy. Following the Swiss model: clockwork Oranje?
- Comments and questions are welcome at the bottom of the page, as well as voting on the likely Golden Boot winner.
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