Yes, it might be three days into le Tour, but the action is really yet to get started. We have had three typical stages, though. A time-trial won by the best in the business, a bunch sprint tarnished by crashes and a transition stage won by a daring breakaway - so a Frenchman in yellow as the race enters France. How fitting.
So, now the riders are just about in France, how are they shaping up? We've already lost some to injury because of cobbles and wet roads (and Mark Cavendish not looking where he was going...) but no big names as of yet.
A closer look at the respective races for the green (sprints) and polka-dot (mountains) jerseys will follow in the next couple of weeks, but I'll start by looking at the contenders for the big prize: general classification, i.e. the yellow jersey.
Spain's Alberto Contador is the overwhelming favourite. He can climb better than anyone else in the race and, unlike most of his climber rivals, can time-trial with the very best. The defending champion, Contador's victory last year oozed class, despite team friction. Team tension should be no problem this year, with Astana doing all they can to get him on that top step of the podium in Paris. His one vulnerability is, conversely, that team. His Astana comrades may be loyal but, on paper at least, look weaker than many of the other Tour squads. If his team-mates falter in the high mountain stages and Contador is left alone, other riders could take advantage. It is perhaps a moot point, though, as Lance Armstrong was more rival than team-mate last year and Contador was rarely troubled.
If team-work can be used against Contador, the men most likely to benefit are the Schleck brothers from Luxembourg. Andy Schleck finished second last year, so would seem to present Contador's biggest challenge, while brother Frank has been on good form this year so far, recently winning the Tour of Switzerland. Both talented climbers, they are close to matching Contador in that respect. Their Saxo Bank team is considered the strongest at the race; plus, their family bond has potential to translate into an effective partnership on the road - if both make it up the mountains, Contador won't have to deal with one Schleck but two of them. Their weakness is undoubtedly the time-trial. Frank has improved from previous years, but both lost time to Contador, Armstrong, et al in the short prologue and could lose more on stage 19. But note: if either has the yellow jersey in their sights, that may prove some crucial motivation.
Italian Ivan Basso has bounced back from a big drug scandal to win this year's Giro d'Italia in impressive style. Having once been Armstrong's main rival, he could threaten Contador: he can time-trial as well as he can climb. But question marks remain over the loyalty of some of his team and, more importantly, has he the energy for another Grand Tour? Aged 32, he might just burn out after giving his all in the Giro - he would be doing very well indeed to keep with Contador and the Schlecks on the high climbs.
Aussie Cadel Evans is the current World Road Champion but finished 29th in last year's Tour. Two second place finishes before that, though, indicate experience in challenging for the top prize and he appears to have become more aggressive in his riding style - his previous conservatism had played into Contador (then Sastre's) hands. He can time-trial well, but may well suffer in the mountains. Add to that a weak-looking team, and Evans is unlikely to really bother Contador.
Bradley Wiggins might hope to boost wounded British sporting pride (at least Hamilton and Button are doing well...). Speaking of wounded, Wiggins' continued participation in the race is under threat as I write: he requires tests after a fall on stage 3. If he can go on, what are his chances? Team Sky look a strong outfit, but we will see how strong in the mountains. Wiggins disappointed in the prologue, a stage he really needed to perform well in. There is one more time-trial for him to use against his less capable rivals in the discipline. However, those rivals know about him now, after he was the surprise package of last year's Tour. Success brings increased pressure, the GC contenders will allow him no freedom and, if push comes to shove, also know they can drop him on the mountains with repeated attacks. Potential is there, but he is unlikely to repeat last year's fourth place.
Lance Armstrong. What can be said about this incredible sportsman, an inspiration to many? Or, alternatively, an arrogant Yank who has fostered drug use in the sport? Whatever your opinion on Armstrong, he is box-office. And it's his last Tour (he says, with a knowing smile). Can he go out on a high? While unlikely to threaten Contador (who is 10 years his junior), Armstrong has unrivalled experience and tacical nous, he can time-trial well (beating Contador by a few seconds in the prologue) and can climb incredibly well for being the 'elder statesman' of the sport. Team RadioShack (Brajkovic, Kloden and Leipheimer in particular) are well equipped to support him and Johan Bruyneel knows all there is to know about the Tour; he also knows about Contador - are there weaknesses to be exploited? Whatever happens, with Lance it's always going to be fascinating to watch.
Right then, time to finish up. I know only fools make predictions without good inside knowledge. But it's hard to see anyone but Contador in yellow come Paris. Yet le Tour is a brilliantly unpredictable race and, if the Spaniard does crack or even drop out for whatever reason, there are capable riders waiting in the wings. Perhaps I've let sentiment cloud my better judgement, but Armstrong's hunger for success in his "last ever Tour" could, maybe, just maybe, see him get on the podium again, fighting one or both of the Schlecks for those places. Basso, Evans and Wiggins are all likely to make the top 10, or at worst top 20. Alongside the usual suspects, I think we'll see a few surprise names come to the fore (Martin? Gerdemann?). As with any Tour, expect thrills and spills. Let entertainment and clean competition be the winners.
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