World Cup reviews/rants over, it's time to have a look at how le Tour is shaping up. Today is the second and last restday, well-merited I think, so I will examine the various jersey competitions and the likely winners.
A quick note on the team classification - Lance Armstrong's Team RadioShack lead the Spanish team Caisse D'Epargne by 4 minutes 27 seconds. First place is likely to be between them, as third-placed Rabobank lie over 30 minutes back. RadioSchack have been strong (perhaps surprisingly so) in the mountains and with a time-trial to come, I expect them to hold on to best team placing.
As for the white jersey, for best young rider, it would be a major surprise if it was not won by Andy Schleck. The Dutchman Robert Gesink and the Czech Roman Kreuziger are his only realistic competition, the pair of them 4' 53" and 7' 50" behind Schleck respectively. I would say that only injury (or other cause for withdrawal) or a disastrous performance in Saturday's time-trial would deprive Schleck of retaining the white jersey.
The polka-dot jersey, awarded to the rider picking up most points in the mountains, looks like being down to two men, though Damiano Cunego, Sandy Casar and Jerome Pineau (in third, fourth and fifth respectively) would maybe disagree. Currently Anthony Charteau stands on 143 points and Christophe Moreau on 128 points. Whoever wins that jersey, currently in Charteau's possession, will be decided in tomorrow's stage, as there are no more classified climbs for the rest of le Tour.
Stage 17 features one fourth-category climb, two first-cat climbs and one hors-cat climb. Charteau's lead of 15 points looks very vulnerable when we consider that the first man to summit a first-cat mountain will collect 15 points; second will pick up 13 points, third 11 points, and so on. Expect Charteau and Moreau to both get themselves in the inevitable breakaway and try to out-sprint each other for those points - Moreau certainly has to. Charteau cannot afford to be caught slacking; while he does know he only has to defend and limit his losses to Moreau, a loss of concentration and he could find his lead wiped out. One way or another, the classification could be decided by the hors-cat Col du Tourmalet (20 points on offer to the winner). If not, I'd anticipate fireworks from these two alongside the GC shoot-out.
Predict a winner? Moreau has been on better form in recent stages and, aged 39, it is his last Tour - he'll want to go out with a jersey on his back. But if Charteau is alert enough, I think he might just have saved himself up for this one and should be capable of defending his albeit slender advantage.
The green jersey classification, for sprinters, is perhaps even more enthralling. Last year's winner, Norway's Thor Hushovd holds a four-point lead over Italian Alessando Petacchi; Britain's Mark Cavendish, after a disappointing first few stages, is 29 points behind Hushovd. Cavendish is probably out of it, even with 35 points given to the winner of a flat stage such as Stage 18. This is because, even if Hushovd and Petacchi cannot beat him in a straight sprint, they can finish high up the rankings so collect a fair few points (the top 25 all get something). They are also much stronger in the intermediate sprints - these could prove decisive if the gap between the top two (or three) remains close.
Cavendish, having seemingly rediscovered the form that made him best in the world, has a great chance of winning Stages 18 and 20 (even without the highly-effective Mark Renshaw), but Hushovd and Petacchi will ensure they finish in the top ten to stay far enough ahead of him. Petacchi has appeared so far to hold the advantage over Hushovd in sprint finishes (he has won two already, so don't rule him out of making that three), but Hushovd is the better all-round Tour cyclist - he can survive in the medium mountains, allowing him to break out of the peleton for intermediate points. While six points might not seem like much, in such a close race, those might be pivotal.
There are two intermediate sprint spots in each of Stages 17, 18 and 20. Hushovd and Petacchi (and maybe Cavendish, if he's serious in his jersey challenge) will do their best to be at the front to allow them to challenge for the first one tomorrow. Only Hushovd has any chance of getting anything from the second, but with two first-cat climbs to negotiate first, it'd be some surprise. Stage 18 is the big one - all three challengers should go for the two intermediate sprints and then the big finish in Bordeaux. Stage 20, and it may well be decided on that day, is likely to pan out the same way.
While we should not rule out Cavendish, his priority is stage wins, not the green jersey. Between Hushovd and Petacchi, it really is too close to call. I do think that if Petacchi can challenge Hushovd in the intermediate sprints (or at least get a team-mate to do it), he might just have the edge in final sprints to win the competition. Hushovd will fight all the way to keep it though, that is certain.
Last but not least is the General Classification (GC) standings, represented by the famous yellow jersey. My predictions early in the race look pretty shaky. Alberto Contador is in yellow at the moment, 8 seconds ahead of Andy Schleck in second. But Frank Schleck crashed out, Cadel Evans cracked on Stage 9 and has never recovered, Ivan Basso has been anonymous, Bradley Wiggins has just not been at it and Lance Armstrong has simply not been able to cope with a combination of very bad luck and high mountains.
Third spot is likely to fall to either Samuel Sanchez or Denis Menchov (Sanchez is just 13 seconds ahead), though Van den Broeck (in fifth) is not too far behind to be discounted yet. Close as it is, I'd tip Menchov to take third - I've been impressed with him this year and, assuming he doesn't allow Sanchez to steal a big time gap on Stage 17, I reckon Menchov can do enough in the Stage 19 time-trial to claim third spot.
Now, the big one. If Alberto Contador wins the yellow jersey by 30 seconds or less, all eyes will look back to Stage 15, where Andy Schleck lost his chain and his 31-second cushion over Contador. Unfortunate as it was for Schleck, I think Contador was correct to keep going. It is a competition after all. If, in the 89th minute of a football match tied at 1-1, you are in on the goalkeeper and the defender coming at you trips over his shoelace, would you stop? No, the game is to play to the whistle. In this race, Contador was not told to stop by a hypothetical whistle (team orders, or being told to by the race referee), so kept going - he'd have been daft not to, especially as Menchov and Sanchez continued at full pelt.
Having said that, it would be a shame if the race was decided by a mechanical incident. Contador, if he is to end up in yellow, has to show he is a worthy champion (not one booed of the podium as happened on Monday). He hasn't looked in the form that won him the race last year; Schleck's assertion that Contador 'fears' him may not be too inaccurate. That said, he has done well to match Schleck's attacks and minimise any time losses.
Stages 17 and 19 will surely be the ones to decide the final winner. Stage 17 will be mixed in with the battle for polka-dot jersey points. But by the Col du Tourmalet, it will be all about yellow. I'd anticipate a select group featuring Contador, Schleck, Sanchez, Menchov, etc to battle it out on this climb. The top two do need to watch Sanchez and Menchov - the former is only two minutes down on Contador - and any manoeuvring the top two indulge in cannot allow that pair to sneak up the road. For Schleck, second place is the bare minimum, and his team principal will drill that message into him.
Contador just has to defend now. Schleck has to go for it, most likely part of the way up Tourmalet, and hope to crack Contador. If only he still had his brother now, as Team Saxo Bank's supposed advantage over Astana has not materialised thanks to Vinokourov and Navarro in particular. If it comes down to a two-man duel, Schleck looks to have the better form, but only just. If he can catch Contador off-guard, the Spaniard knows not to panic. He is more than capable of keeping any Schleck gains to a minimum. And that should be enough. Because, even if Contador loses yellow tomorrow, he can reclaim it on Saturday. Contador is odds-on to beat Schleck in the time-trial - a gap of 30 seconds, even a minute, is probably closeable. Yet if Schleck gains a minute or more on the Tourmalet, Contador is going to be in trouble. The yellow jersey does strange things to a man; just ask Carlos Sastre in 2008 or, funnily enough, Alberto Contador in 2007. Both times, the climbing specialist limited their losses to the supposed time-trialling specialist (Cadel Evans on both occasions). If Schleck has yellow on his back and a lead of sixty seconds or more, who'd dare rule him out from doing the time-trial of his life?
I said originally that Contador would win the yellow jersey competition; I'm going to stick to that prediction. Otherwise? To recap...
- GC: Alberto Contador (Astana) [Andy Schleck 2nd, Denis Menchov 3rd]
- Sprints: Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre) [Thor Hushovd a very close 2nd]
- Mountains: Anthony Charteau (Bbox Bouygues Telecom) [Christophe Moreau 2nd]
- Youth: Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank)
- Team: RadioShack
All competitions are yet to be decided and are all fairly close, so I could be provedwrong on all counts! My hopes are that the last four days are as exciting and surprising as the first 17, that a drug-free Tour stays just that and that the eventual yellow jersey, be it (in all likelihood) Contador or Schleck, may be a champion worthy of the name.
Full race standings and other information/news can be found here; as ever, comments and questions are always welcome.
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